Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi
Tennis prediction and statistical comparison using recorded form, recent activity, player ratings, serve and return performance, and surface records.
Match prediction
TennisEdge prediction: Carlos Alcaraz
Model probability
93.1%
Fair odds
1.07
Market odds
1.08
Value edge
+1.0%
Confidence
Very High
Current TennisEdge Today model output for this matchup. Betting value is assessed against the current market price.
Key statistical comparison
| Metric | Carlos Alcaraz | Matteo Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 2085.0 | — |
| Last-10 recorded win rate | 70.0% | 40.0% |
| Last match | Today | 1 day ago |
| Recent activity | 6 in 30 days | 1 in 30 days |
| Serve points won | 67.6% | 62.0% |
| Return points won | 41.9% | 37.4% |
| Ace rate | 6.4% | 6.9% |
| Double fault rate | 3.0% | 4.0% |
| Break chances created | 9.1 | 7.0 |
| Break points saved | 65.5% | 63.1% |
Surface records
Hard
Carlos Alcaraz80.3%
Matteo Arnaldi48.3%
Clay
Carlos Alcaraz87.3%
Matteo Arnaldi52.1%
Grass
Carlos Alcaraz91.9%
Matteo Arnaldi16.7%