Carlos Alcaraz vs Denis Shapovalov
Tennis prediction and statistical comparison using recorded form, recent activity, player ratings, serve and return performance, and surface records.
Match prediction
TennisEdge prediction: Carlos Alcaraz
Model probability
88.9%
Fair odds
1.13
Market odds
1.15
Value edge
+2.3%
Confidence
Very High
Current TennisEdge Today model output for this matchup. Betting value is assessed against the current market price.
Key statistical comparison
| Metric | Carlos Alcaraz | Denis Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 2085.0 | 1823.0 |
| Last-10 recorded win rate | 70.0% | 70.0% |
| Last match | Today | Today |
| Recent activity | 6 in 30 days | 7 in 30 days |
| Serve points won | 67.6% | 64.6% |
| Return points won | 41.9% | 36.8% |
| Ace rate | 6.4% | 10.2% |
| Double fault rate | 3.0% | 7.9% |
| Break chances created | 9.1 | 6.7 |
| Break points saved | 65.5% | 62.0% |
Surface records
Hard
Carlos Alcaraz80.3%
Denis Shapovalov57.7%
Clay
Carlos Alcaraz87.3%
Denis Shapovalov43.2%
Grass
Carlos Alcaraz91.9%
Denis Shapovalov42.9%